Analysts believe Tokyo would seek to interact more with Southeast Asia since issues regarding the expected departure of the historically balanced diplomacy become more important. Japan is closely watching Malaysia’s ambitions to join the BRICS group of developing countries—an alliance frequently seen as counterbalance to Western powers including Europe, the United States, and Japan.
Japan’s concerns revolve on the likelihood that Malaysia and Thailand would be straying from the diplomatic balance they have always maintained between developed and new global blocs. Two of the extremely strong BRICS countries, China and Russia, would benefit most from this leaning, analysts believe.
Rising BRICS Influence and Their Allure to Southeast Asian Nations
Originally consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa when first gathered in 2009, the BRICS bloc has been fast growing lately. This growth fits China’s and Russia’s more ambitious objectives of recruiting countries from the “Global South,” those long excluded by Western power economic dominance. Six more BRICS members were welcomed during a meeting in South Africa; both Malaysia and Thailand are anticipated to be confirmed as the most recent members of the club at the next conference in Russia.
Representing approximately 40% of the world’s population and around 25% of its economy, BRICS has already become a key player on the international scene. Including younger members like Thailand and Malaysia will probably help to increase its political and economic might even further. Economically, both countries obviously want quick gains from BRICS participation. While Malaysia is focused on growing its semiconductor sector, Thailand aims to improve its own automotive sector.
Emphasizing the importance of this change, especially in reference to Thailand, Professor of Politics and International Relations Go Ito from Meiji University in Tokyo said, “Thailand has kept solid ties to China for some time now.” He said Thailand boasts more Confucius Institutes, Chinese government-sponsored cultural and educational projects, than any other nation except the United States. These organizations have drawn criticism for purportedly disseminating Chinese state propaganda even while they advocate cross-cultural communication.
The issues facing Tokyo and a calculated response
Two major Southeast Asian countries developing close connections to BRICS presents a diplomatic puzzle for Japan. Go Ito underlined that this behavior seriously disturbs Tokyo and lessens Japan’s impact in the neighboring area. Historically a main friend and investor for Southeast Asia, Japan might change the geopolitics with this new alliance.
Through closer relations to Malaysia and Thailand, Japan is supposed to neutralize BRICS’ influence. Ito believes Tokyo will most likely follow the strategy it has used with Vietnam in recent years, which calls for strengthening security relations in reaction to China’s belligancy in the South China Sea. Strengthening diplomatic, financial, and security cooperation will help Japan to justify its long-standing ties in Southeast Asia and stop any obvious leaning toward BRICS.
Jeff Kingston, Director of Asian Studies at Temple University in Tokyo, follows more exacting standards. He questions if Thailand’s and Malaysia’s objectives for joining BRICS point to any obvious change of allegiance. Kingston said, “We could consider this as a clever hedging technique.” According to him, both nations are orienting toward maximal profits from both sides of the global power battle. By strengthening relations with other blocs instead of committing total fealty to BRICS, Malaysia and Thailand could be aiming to increase their negotiating strength.
Problems Right Ahead of the Brights Alliance
While BRICS offers financial prospects for its members, Kingston contends that the body suffers internal strife. The political and geographical variation of the bloc is one of its basic flaws. He said, “Russia, for instance, has little in common with South Africa,” noting Thailand would find herself lacking common interests with other BRICS members such the United Arab Emirates.
Still another problem among BRICS members is a haphazard agenda. The alliance has some goals, including helping to drive better commodities prices, but their position on more general foreign policy concerns does not line up. “It is an organization in search of a coherent agenda,” Kingston said, implying that the bloc might not come together completely for some time.
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For many years, Japan has been a major participant in Southeast Asia, making significant investments there and providing a good share of its foreign aid budget. Analysts say that Japan’s constant presence and moral behavior have helped it to build a better reliability and friendliness than other big investors including China, South Korea, and Taiwan. Often sought for as consistent friends for infrastructure development and economic success, Japanese companies are well-known for their rigorous attention to detail and project schedules.
Kingston underlined the strategic “long game” approach of Japan and refutes worries about more Southeast Asian countries joining BRICS after Malaysia and Thailand. Japan is unlikely to have a transient fading influence given its strong links to governments and civic organizations all around during decades of involvement. Still much depends on the country’s capacity to sustain tight relations with Southeast Asian countries as well as on its dedication to international aid and development projects.
Anticipating Japanese doom in Southeast Asia
Japan would be under more pressure to adjust its policies in Southeast Asia as BRICS keeps growing and global geopolitics evolves. It is hard to overestimate the significance of the area for Japan’s security and economic interests; Tokyo most definitely will increase its diplomatic and commercial activities in response to the increasing appeal of BRICS. Japan is most certainly going to be a major player in the Southeast Asian political scene for the foreseeable future whether by infrastructure projects, security cooperation, or more foreign aid.
Although the rise of BRICS poses a threat, Japan’s tight ties and long-standing obligations in the area provide it a strong platform to offset any movements toward recently formed blocs like BRICS. Eventually, how Japan responds and how Malaysia and Thailand handle their developing connections to BRICS will define most importantly the path of diplomacy in Southeast Asia.
