China and Japan are experiencing a dramatic decline in public sentiment towards each other, marking the worst period of mutual distrust in over two decades. According to a new joint survey conducted by Tokyo-based think tank The Genron NPO and Beijing’s China International Publishing Group, nearly 90% of respondents from both countries now hold a negative view of their neighbor.
The 20th Japan-China Joint Public Opinion Poll, released on Monday ahead of the annual Tokyo-Beijing Forum, paints a concerning picture of the state of relations between the two nations. The survey reveals a sharp increase in negative sentiment, with 87.7% of Chinese respondents expressing unfavorable views of Japan. This marks a nearly 25% rise from the previous year and is the second-highest figure since the poll began in 2005. The only higher level of negativity was recorded in 2013 when 92.8% of Chinese respondents had a negative impression of Japan following the nationalization of the disputed Diaoyu Islands (known as Senkaku Islands in Japan) by Tokyo in 2012. The nationalization sparked widespread anti-Japanese protests and demonstrations across several Chinese cities.
The Rising Tensions Between China and Japan
The rising negative sentiment in China is primarily driven by long standing territorial disputes, particularly over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands. While the two countries have attempted to manage their differences through diplomacy, historical grievances and ongoing tensions continue to fuel mutual suspicion. The 2012 anti-Japan protests, which saw violent clashes between demonstrators and Chinese authorities, remain a deeply significant event in shaping public opinion in China. These protests were sparked by Tokyo’s decision to buy the islands from private Japanese owners, an action seen by Beijing as a provocative move to assert Japan’s control over the disputed territory.
Additionally, Japan’s response to the growing military presence of China in the region has contributed to rising concerns within the Japanese public. China’s growing assertiveness in the East China Sea and its extensive military build-up are seen as direct challenges to Japan’s security, which further deepens the animosity between the two nations.
Japan’s Negative View of China
On the other hand, Japan has also seen a significant proportion of its population expressing unfavorable views of China, with 89% of Japanese respondents in this year’s poll indicating a negative impression of their neighbor. While this figure is slightly lower than last year’s 92%, it still represents a deeply rooted distrust and anxiety about China’s intentions. This shift in sentiment is largely driven by concerns over China’s increasing military and economic power, as well as its growing influence in global geopolitics.
The issue of China’s human rights practices, particularly in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, has also played a key role in shaping the negative views of the Japanese public. Furthermore, Japan’s alliance with the United States and its support for Western-led sanctions against China have exacerbated the divide between the two nations. The Japanese public’s wariness about China’s intentions in the region, particularly with regard to Taiwan, has been an ongoing source of tension.
Historical Context and the Role of Nationalism
The current state of relations between China and Japan cannot be understood without considering the historical context that has shaped their interactions. The legacy of World War II, the Japanese invasion of China, and the atrocities committed during the conflict, such as the Nanking Massacre, continue to influence public perceptions in both countries. These historical issues have often been invoked by nationalist movements in both nations to fuel anti-Japanese or anti-Chinese sentiment.
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In recent years, nationalist sentiment has surged in both countries, particularly among younger generations who have grown up with limited exposure to the history of the war. In China, the government has often played on anti-Japanese sentiment to rally national pride and distract from domestic issues. Similarly, in Japan, nationalists have used fears about China’s rise to rally support for a more robust defense policy.
Diplomatic Efforts to Ease Tensions
Despite these negative trends, both China and Japan continue to maintain diplomatic ties, recognizing the need for cooperation on economic, regional, and global issues. Trade between the two nations remains robust, with China being Japan’s largest trading partner, and Japan being one of China’s key investors. In recent years, there have been attempts to stabilize the relationship through high-level visits and dialogues, although these efforts have not been enough to change the prevailing negative attitudes among the public.
The Japan-China Joint Public Opinion Poll highlights the challenges both governments face in shifting public perception. While the Chinese government has made efforts to present Japan as a partner in regional stability, particularly through cooperation in areas such as climate change and infrastructure, the historical wounds run deep. Likewise, Japan continues to balance its security concerns regarding China with the need for economic cooperation, but this delicate balancing act has been difficult to maintain.
The Impact of the Poll’s Findings
The results of this survey are a stark reminder of the deepening divide between China and Japan and the difficulties both nations face in fostering a more cooperative relationship. With nearly 90% of respondents from both countries harboring negative views of the other, it is clear that public sentiment plays a significant role in shaping the future trajectory of bilateral relations. As both nations continue to assert their influence in the Asia-Pacific region, it remains to be seen whether diplomatic efforts will be enough to overcome the historical animosities and emerging security concerns that dominate public opinion.
The ongoing friction between China and Japan serves as a cautionary tale for other nations in the region, underscoring the importance of managing historical grievances, promoting diplomatic dialogue, and fostering trust-building measures. In an increasingly multipolar world, the ability of China and Japan to navigate their differences will have profound implications not only for the two countries but also for regional and global stability.
As China and Japan enter a new phase of relations marked by rising tension and public dissatisfaction, it is clear that both nations will have to confront their historical baggage and nationalistic fervor to pave the way for a more constructive future. While economic interdependence continues to be a stabilizing force, the path forward will require both governments to prioritize dialogue, mutual respect, and a willingness to address long standing grievances. Until these efforts can overcome the deep-seated mistrust, the two countries are likely to continue grappling with the consequences of public sentiment shaped by history and contemporary geopolitical realities.
