El Niño’s potential impact on Indonesia

El Niño has begun in the Pacific Ocean after three years. Experts believe that the Republic of Indonesia can be at relatively moderate risk because of variables ranging from sunspots to sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Indian Ocean, the third-largest of the world’s five oceanic divisions.

El Niño can cause extreme weather events. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has also issued an El Niño advisory. US scientists believe that 2024 will be the world’s hottest year.

Recently, Indonesian National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) spokesman Abdul Muhari said that Indonesia witnessed an upward trend in instances of forest and land fires due to the El Niño weather phenomenon. He revealed that there were four cases of forest and land fires in May.

Scientists have already predicted the return of the El Niño weather phenomenon in the second half of 2023. In recent years, widespread forest and land fires in Indonesia have already affected the country.

Reportedly, forest and land fire cases in Indonesia dropped significantly over the past three years due to the La Niña weather phenomenon, which is the colder counterpart of El Niño. La Niña causes more rainfall.

According to reports, El Niño can bring drought to Australia, rainfall to the southern United States, and weaken India’s monsoon.

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According to BBC, Adam Scaife, head of long-range predictions at the United Kingdom Met Office, said, “It is ramping up now, there have been signs in our predictions for several months, but it’s really looking like it will peak at the end of this year in terms of its intensity.”

Reportedly, El Niño Southern Oscillation has three different phases: Hot, cold and neutral. It takes place in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

A Climatologist at Indonesia’s Meteorological, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) Urip Haryoko said that Indonesia might experience a dry season until April next year.