How party politics could shield Prabowo from election fraud allegations

Prabowo Subianto, the former general and presidential candidate who is leading the provisional vote count in Indonesia’s 2024 election, is facing allegations of election fraud from his rivals and monitoring groups. They claim that Prabowo and his supporters have manipulated the voter registration, the vote counting, and the vote reporting processes, in order to inflate his votes and undermine the credibility of the election.

Some of the alleged irregularities include:

– The inclusion of millions of ghost voters, duplicate voters, and underage voters in the voter list, which could have been used to cast multiple or invalid votes for Prabowo.

– The tampering of the ballots, the ballot boxes, and the vote tally sheets, which could have been used to alter or destroy the votes for Prabowo’s opponents.

– The hacking of the electronic voting system, the online vote reporting system, and the official website of the General Election Commission (KPU), which could have been used to manipulate or falsify the vote data and the results.

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The evidence

The allegations of election fraud have been supported by various sources of evidence, such as:

– The reports and findings of several civil society organizations, such as the Association for Elections and Democracy (Perludem), the People’s Voter Education Network (JPPR), and the Independent Election Monitoring Committee (KIPP), which have conducted independent audits and investigations of the election process.

– The testimonies and complaints of several witnesses, whistleblowers, and victims, who have reported or experienced cases of intimidation, bribery, coercion, violence, and fraud during the election.

– The analysis and comparison of various data sources, such as the voter list, the quick count, the real count, and the official results, which have shown discrepancies, anomalies, and inconsistencies in the vote numbers and percentages.

The response

Prabowo and his campaign team have denied the allegations of election fraud, and have accused his rivals and monitoring groups of being biased, dishonest, and conspiring against him. They have also claimed that they have evidence of election fraud committed by his opponents, and have challenged them to prove their allegations in court.

Prabowo has also appealed to his supporters and the public to remain calm and patient, and to respect the legal and constitutional process of resolving the election dispute. He has also urged the KPU, the Election Supervisory Agency (Bawaslu), and the Constitutional Court (MK) to be fair, transparent, and accountable in conducting and verifying the vote count and the results.

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The implications

The allegations of election fraud have raised serious questions and concerns about the integrity and legitimacy of the election, and have cast a shadow over Prabowo’s potential victory and presidency. They have also increased the tensions and risks of conflict in the country, as both sides have mobilized their supporters and prepared for legal and political battles.

However, the allegations of election fraud may not be enough to overturn Prabowo’s lead or to annul the election results, due to several factors, such as:

– The difficulty and complexity of proving and quantifying the extent and impact of election fraud, especially in a large and diverse country like Indonesia, with more than 270 million people and 800,000 polling stations.

– The lack of independence and credibility of the election institutions and authorities, which have been accused of being influenced or infiltrated by Prabowo and his allies, and of being reluctant or unable to investigate and address the election fraud.

– The strength and influence of Prabowo’s political coalition, which consists of several parties that control the majority of seats in the parliament, and that have the power to block or influence the legislative and judicial processes related to the election.

Therefore, Prabowo may be able to shield himself from the election fraud allegations, and to secure his presidency, by relying on his party politics and his loyal supporters. However, he may also face challenges and pressures from his opponents and the public, who may not accept his legitimacy and authority, and who may demand accountability and justice for the election fraud.