The Impact of the US Presidential Race on Taiwan Amid Rising Geopolitical Tensions

Rising geopolitical tensions characterize the background of the upcoming presidential contest between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in the United States, particularly with relation to Taiwan. In the sixth volume of a series, Shi Jiangtao investigates how the outcome of this election can influence Taiwan’s future, therefore addressing a fundamental issue of US-China relations.

Election Context: Taiwan’s Main Participation

Beijing has not stated a preference for either former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris as the next US leader while the White House election enters its last month and stays deadlocked. Still, diplomatic analysts concur that independent of the outcome of the election, Taiwan would always be the main cause of strife in US-China relations. They warn that the difficult choreography of mixing reassurance and deterrent—one which Joe Biden has skillfully managed—will provide difficulties for the next government.

Taiwan’s past ties to both the US and China complicate her place in this geopolitical chess game even further. Beijing regards Taiwan as a renegade province, although after being split off since 1949, the end of the Chinese Civil War, the island has developed with democratic government and distinctive culture. Knowing the nuances of this relationship will enable one to project how the US government of tomorrow might manage Taiwan and her security.

Consensus on China policy grounded on biopolitical standards

Though the Democratic and Republican nominees have sharply clashed on many issues, including the economy, abortion rights, climate change, and the situation in Ukraine, Washington clearly agrees on the need for a tougher posture on China. This pact emphasizes on enhancing Taiwan’s defense capability, therefore underscoring the island’s relevance in US-China dynamics.

Growing hostility between the US and China has motivated both parties to take a more aggressive posture for the protection of Taiwan. As military drills and conflicts become increasingly frequent in the Taiwan Strait, legislators from all sides of the spectrum join in their calls for strengthening of Taiwan’s defenses and military readiness. This convergence implies that the problem of Taiwan will remain primary concern in US foreign policy independent of party leadership of the White House.

Taiwan: a difficult and deadly dilemma

Regardless of who resides in the White House next year, Professor of International Relations Head of the China Institute at Bucknell University Zhiqun Zhu notes that Taiwan will remain the most divisive and dangerous subject in the US-China relationship. Beijing regards Taiwan as a normal part of China, committed to unite the island even if military force is required. Though it does not recognize Taiwan’s independence, the US has consistently opposed any forceful attempts at reunification; however, it fervuously supports Taiwan and supplies its principal military supplier.

This precise equilibrium influences not just East Asian regional stability but also Taiwan’s future. Anxiety over a possible military confrontation in the Taiwan Strait has shocked important US allies, Japan and South Korea. As tensions grow, these nations are intently following events and may be driven to increase their own military capability in response to a changing security environment.

Negotiating Taiwan Strait Security: Degrading Situation

Under William Lai Ching-te, who entered office in May, China has been applying military, political, and financial pressure on Taiwan, therefore exacerbating the security situation across the Taiwan Strait all year. Beijing responded by punishing nine US defense businesses involved in the pact after Washington approved of its 16th arms transfer to Taiwan, which came to US$ 228 million. Moreover aggravating the situation is China’s refusal of tax exemptions for thirty-four Taiwanese products in keeping with Lai’s pro-independence stance.

This always growing cycle of sanctions and military posture reveals the weakness in cross-strait ties. The Chinese government clearly shows how it sees attempts at Taiwan’s independence as a direct challenge to its sovereignty, therefore generating conflict. Moreover demanding Taipei and Washington is the increasing frequency of Chinese military incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ), thereby necessitating stronger military cooperation and readiness.

The peril of a race for weaponry

Concerned about the progressively dangerous situation in the Taiwan Strait, Renmin University’s Professor of International Relations Shi Yinhong said He raised awareness of the US-China arms race, hence producing the ghost of future conflict. Under both Trump and Biden, the US has launched significant campaigns to boost military support for Taiwan, so ready for any ultimate battle with China over the island. Trump would introduce some volatility that would complicate things, but Yinhong pointed out that a Harris or Trump government would most definitely follow this course.

From this arms contest for regional security, there could be more broad repercussions. Rising China’s threat could force neighbors to increase their military expenditure and forge new partnerships under pressure. The US’s more spending to help Taiwan complicates diplomacy and inadvertently causes conflict in the neighboring nations.

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From Harris’s viewpoint on Taiwan

Kamala Harris has spoken little publicly about China and Taiwan without foreign policy experience. She emphasized in a recent interview that American economic interests must be protected even if the US should avoid engaging in confrontation. She emphasized the significance of maintaining a one-China policy considering support of Taiwan’s self-defense capability even though she refrained from discussing imaginary military action.

Harris’s comments exactly illustrate the complexity of US policy aimed toward Taiwan. The government understands the need of supporting Taiwan’s security and sovereignty even though it has to navigate the sensitive relationship with China. This juggling performance helps to prevent misinterpretation that can lead to escalation.

Senior policy analyst Sourabh Gupta of the Institute for China-America Studies in Washington feels that the overall lines of a Harris president on Taiwan policy will reflect those of the Biden government. Gupta reiterated once more that the Biden government adheres to the one-China policy and constantly mentioned that the US supports neither “two Chinas” nor Taiwan independence.

Though there are signs of apparent policy volatility—that is, Biden’s frequent declarations of a readiness to back Taiwan—the White House has moved to classify Taiwan as one of “strategic ambiguity.” US officials have been continuously telling Beijing that they view the Taiwan issue as not a tool for containment of China.

For Harris and Trump both, negotiating the complexity of US-China relations while attending to Taiwan’s security issues would be challenging. Any mistake can have significant consequences not just for Taiwan but also for the whole Asia-Pacific region.

Anticipations of upcoming Taiwanese policy

Both Zhu and Gupta agree that a Harris government would most likely follow Biden’s approach toward Taiwan, which consists in military reinforcement of the island, internationalizing the Taiwan issue, and rejecting any unilateral status quo change. They argue that a Harris presidency is unlikely to improve cross-strait relations, thereby suggesting that tensions would remain high and the US-China relationship about Taiwan will remain complicated.

The new government will have to be constantly talking with China as well as Taiwan if it is to sufficiently manage issues ahead. Analyzing military strategy, diplomatic outreach, and economic cooperation helps to prevent open confrontation from developing from the circumstances. Maintaining stability across the Taiwan Strait will depend on a well defined policy framework.

As the presidential contest develops, Taiwan’s future hangs menacingly. Geopolitical tensions mounting with both candidates prepared to adopt strong positions on China, the incoming US government will undoubtedly have a challenging task in managing an always sensitive scenario. This election will define not only Taiwan’s security but also help to define the limits of US-China relations moving ahead.

The manner the next president treats Taiwan calls for careful analysis of historical backdrop, regional dynamics, and ambitions of Taiwanese people. The projected outcomes of experts clearly show that the Taiwan issue would remain a primary cause of tension regardless of the winner and demand strategic thinking and cautious diplomacy from the future government. The stakes are very high given US-China ties and beyond since the decisions taken in the following months will define not only Taiwan but also the fate of the whole region.