Released Tuesday, US Vice President Kamala Harris is closely trailing US President Donald Trump in a national presidential poll, one of the first significant polls carried out since US President Joe Biden called off his reelection bid. As the political scene changes, this development prepares the ground for a closely fought race.
The Polling Values
Based on the Reuters/Ipsos poll, Harris has a thin two-point advantage over Trump—44 percent to 42 percent. Over two days following Biden’s surprising Sunday announcement on Sunday that he was endorsing his vice president and quitting the campaign, this poll was carried out.
Harris, 59, and Trump, now the senior in the presidential contest at 78, were equal at 44 percent in the previous week’s poll. The close figures show the competitiveness of the forthcoming election and imply that both candidates have solid foundations of support.
Harris’s momentum
Now the clear front-runner for the Democratic candidacy, Harris is fast attracting pledges, funds, and endorsements. She has momentum, but in another poll taken on the same day she lags behind Trump. Both numbers, nevertheless, lie within the margins of error of the polls, suggesting a very competitive contest.
The new polls tracked Biden’s withdraw from the contest as well as the Republican National Convention, where Trump formally embraced the party’s presidential nominee. Supported by the enthusiasm among Democratic voters over the upheaval in the race, Harris’s poll result reveals her presumably neutralizing of the bounce that a contender usually gets in the days following their party’s nominating convention.
Comprehensive Polling Notes
With nine percent of US registered voters undecided, Trump edges Harris with 46 percent to 45 percent in a PBS News/NPR/Marist survey done Monday. Should third-party candidates or independents enter the race, Trump and Harris tie at 42 percent while the other contenders lags much behind.
Crossing generational and political boundaries, the PBS News poll also showed that 87 percent of all Americans agree Biden’s choice to leave out was the appropriate one. While 24% of respondents thought Biden’s choice lowers the party’s chances, 34% of respondents said it makes no difference and 41% of respondents said Biden’s decision boosts Democrats’ chances of winning in November.
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Context of Not too Recent Events
Both polls follow Trump escaping an astonishing assassination attempt on a Pennsylvania event on July 13. Clearly, this incident changed public perspective and the mechanics of the race.
RealClearPolished Polling Average
Based on an average of surveys gathered by RealClearPolitics, Trump keeps a quite limited edge of 1.6% versus Harris. This narrow margin emphasizes the unpredictability and volatility of the forthcoming contest.
November’s Road
The political techniques of both candidates will be under rigorous examination as the campaign advances. Consolidating her support base and contacting undecided voters as well as those leaning toward third-party candidates may provide challenges for Harris. Trump’s campaign will probably center on maintaining his advantage and profiting from the alleged flaws in the Democratic nominee.
As both contenders fight for the top office in the United States, the following few months promise fierce campaigning and calculated maneuvering. Given the bigger stakes than ever, the 2024 presidential contest is likely to be among the most important and highly followed events of recent times.
