In a surprising move, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un announced last month that he was abandoning the long-held goal of reconciliation and unification with South Korea, and instead declared the South as his country’s “permanent enemy”. Kim said that North Korea “did not want war, but we also have no intention of avoiding it”, and that his aim was to “occupy, suppress and reclaim” the South if a conflict broke out.
Kim’s new stand on South Korea marks a radical departure from decades of official policy, which sought to maintain dialogue and cooperation with the South, despite occasional tensions and provocations. Kim’s father and predecessor, Kim Jong Il, had signed several agreements with the South, such as the 1991 Basic Agreement and the 2000 Joint Declaration, which committed both sides to peaceful coexistence and eventual reunification.
Kim’s Reasons for the Policy Shift
Kim’s reasons for the policy shift are not entirely clear, but some analysts suggest that he may have been influenced by several factors, such as:
- The failure of the diplomatic process with the US, which has stalled since the 2019 Hanoi summit, where Kim and former President Donald Trump failed to reach a deal on denuclearization and sanctions relief. Kim may have concluded that the US is not sincere or reliable in its negotiations, and that he needs to take a more hardline stance to pressure the US and its allies.
- The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has worsened the economic and humanitarian situation in North Korea, which was already suffering from international sanctions, natural disasters, and chronic food shortages. Kim may have decided to divert attention from the domestic problems and rally his people around a common enemy, as well as to seek more resources and legitimacy for his military buildup.
- The change of leadership in South Korea, which will hold a presidential election in March this year. Kim may have wanted to send a message to the incoming president, who will likely be more conservative and less conciliatory than the current President Moon Jae-in, who has pursued a policy of engagement and dialogue with the North. Kim may have also wanted to test the resolve and response of the South and its ally, the US.
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Kim’s Actions to Back Up His Words
Kim has not only changed his words, but also his actions, to back up his new policy toward the South. In recent weeks, he has ordered a series of weapons tests, including ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and hypersonic missiles, demonstrating his country’s growing and diversified arsenal. He has also shelled a maritime buffer zone that was established in 2018 to prevent accidental clashes, and called for his military to accelerate war preparations and readiness.
Kim’s actions have drawn condemnation and concern from the international community, especially from the US, South Korea, and Japan, who have urged him to refrain from further provocations and return to dialogue. The US has also reaffirmed its commitment to defend and support its allies in the region, and has conducted joint military exercises and consultations with them. The UN Security Council has also discussed the situation and called for the full implementation of its resolutions on North Korea.
Kim’s Risks and Rewards of the Policy Shift
Kim’s policy shift toward the South may bring him some rewards, such as:
- Enhancing his domestic legitimacy and popularity, by portraying himself as a strong and defiant leader who can stand up to the US and the South, and who can protect and advance his country’s interests and sovereignty.
- Increasing his bargaining power and leverage, by raising the stakes and the costs of a potential conflict, and by creating a sense of urgency and crisis that could compel the US and the South to offer more concessions and incentives for dialogue and cooperation.
However, Kim’s policy shift also entails significant risks, such as:
- Provoking a military response or escalation, by crossing the red lines or thresholds of the US and the South, and by miscalculating their intentions and capabilities. A war on the Korean Peninsula could be devastating and catastrophic for all parties involved, especially for North Korea, which could face overwhelming retaliation and destruction.
- Isolating himself and his country, by alienating and antagonizing his potential partners and interlocutors, and by violating and undermining the international norms and rules. A more isolated and sanctioned North Korea could face more economic and diplomatic pressure and challenges, and could lose its influence and relevance in the region and the world.
The Future of the Korean Peninsula
The future of the Korean Peninsula is uncertain and unpredictable, as Kim’s policy shift has created a new and dangerous situation that could lead to either war or peace, depending on how the parties involved react and interact. The US and the South have expressed their willingness and preference for dialogue and diplomacy, but they have also made clear that they will not tolerate or accept North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats, and that they will defend and deter any aggression. North Korea, meanwhile, has shown its determination and capability to pursue and enhance its nuclear and missile programs, but it has also left some room for dialogue and engagement, if the conditions and terms are favorable.
The key to resolving the crisis and preventing a war lies in finding a way to bridge the gap and build trust between the two sides, and to address their respective security and economic concerns and interests. This will require political will, strategic vision, and creative diplomacy from all parties involved, as well as the support and cooperation of the international community. The stakes are high, and the time is short, for the peace and stability of the Korean Peninsula and the region.
